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The historic Ashes series may offer a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the team was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Squad Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test team being above thirty, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, change is here, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a much more significant change with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what new injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Future Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that train a-coming, coming around the bend, and England ain’t seen the success since they don’t know when.